A $10 billion question: Who will fill Sudan’s economic void?
Sudan’s civil war has displaced 13 million people and killed tens of thousands since April 2023, but for Algerian entrepreneurs, the crisis is creating an unexpected opening. The conflict has crippled Sudan’s economy, halting trade flows that once connected East Africa to the Mediterranean. With Saudi Arabia’s recent pledge to stabilize Sudan—backed by a $10 billion aid and investment package—Algiers now faces a choice: will it step in to replace lost trade, or will rivals like Turkey and the UAE seize the moment?
The stakes are clear. Sudan was Algeria’s 12th-largest trading partner before the war, with annual bilateral trade exceeding $500 million in 2022, according to the Algerian Ministry of Commerce. Now, with Sudan’s ports—like Port Sudan—idle and its agriculture sector collapsing, Algerian exporters of wheat, pharmaceuticals, and machinery could become the default suppliers for displaced Sudanese and regional markets. “The window is narrow but real,” says Mohamed B., an Algerian logistics entrepreneur based in Oran, who has already rerouted shipments from Sudan to Libya and Tunisia. “If we act now, we can lock in contracts before competitors do.”
The Saudi commitment—announced this week in a call between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Sudan’s military leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan—adds urgency. Riyadh’s $10 billion pledge includes infrastructure projects, but it won’t immediately restore Sudan’s trade capacity. That leaves a gap for Algeria to fill, particularly in sectors where it has a competitive edge: food security, energy, and light manufacturing.
From war to market: How Algerian firms can exploit Sudan’s collapse
The first priority for Algerian businesses is securing supply chains. Sudan’s war has disrupted its role as a transit hub for goods moving between the Gulf and sub-Saharan Africa. “Before 2023, 30% of our container traffic to West Africa went through Sudan,” says Karim L., CEO of a Algiers-based freight forwarder. “Now, we’re forced to use longer, costlier routes via Egypt or Morocco.” But the collapse also presents a chance to redirect those flows.
Algeria’s state-owned companies are already moving. SONATRACH has quietly resumed oil deliveries to Sudan via pipelines, despite sanctions risks, while private traders are smuggling wheat through Libya’s porous borders. “The black market is thriving,” says a source at the Algerian Chamber of Commerce. “But smart entrepreneurs are turning it into a business.” For example, a group of Algerian bakers in Constantine has secured a contract to supply Sudanese refugee camps in Chad with flatbread—using Algeria’s subsidized flour and local labor.
The diaspora is also playing a role. Algerian expatriates in Saudi Arabia and the UAE—many of them former traders—are returning with capital and connections. “I left for Dubai in 2010, but now I’m setting up a trading firm in Annaba,” says Samir R., who previously handled Sudanese imports. “The demand is there, but the bureaucracy in Algiers is slowing us down.” His firm plans to import Sudanese gum arabic (a lucrative export) and re-export it to Europe, bypassing the war zone.
The risks: Sanctions, corruption, and a slow-moving state
Not all opportunities are straightforward. Sudan’s war has made it a sanctions target, and Algerian firms risk secondary penalties if they deal with sanctioned entities. “We’re advising clients to use shell companies in Dubai or Turkey,” says a lawyer at a Casablanca-based firm. “But transparency is a nightmare.”
Corruption is another hurdle. Informal trade networks—often tied to military or security figures—dominate the Sudan-Algeria border. “If you want to move goods legally, you’ll pay three times the duty,” says a customs official in Tamanrasset. “But if you know the right people, it’s a different story.” This has led to a surge in smuggling, which undercuts formal businesses.
Algeria’s sluggish bureaucracy is the biggest obstacle. While private firms scramble to adapt, the government has yet to announce a clear strategy for engaging Sudan. “We need a fast-track visa system for Sudanese traders and a single window for customs,” says Boudjema B., president of the Algerian-Sudanese Business Council. “Right now, it’s every man for himself.”
Yet some progress is being made. The Central Bank of Algeria has eased currency controls for Sudan-related trade, and the Ministry of Industry is studying tax incentives for firms that invest in Sudan’s displaced communities. “The signal is weak, but it’s there,” says a diplomat in Algiers.
Key takeaway for entrepreneurs
Algerian founders have a rare chance to dominate Sudan’s post-war reconstruction—but only if they act fast. The sectors with the highest upside are food processing (especially wheat and dairy), logistics (redirected trade routes), and light manufacturing (textiles, pharmaceuticals). The diaspora’s return with capital and networks is a game-changer, but success depends on cutting through red tape and navigating sanctions risks. For those who move now, Sudan’s collapse could become Algeria’s next export boom.
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